Market Commentary/Forecast for June 28, 2024
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) numbers released this morning show that annual inflation fell to its lowest rate in over three years as of May. The Core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% for the month and 2.6% year-over-year, in line with expectations. Broader inflation, including food and energy, remained unchanged for the month and maintained a 2.6% annual increase.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a July interest-rate cut remained stable at 10.3%. However, the likelihood of a rate cut in September rose to 65.9%, up from 64.1%.
But remember, lower rates aren't directly linked to a bull trend. In fact, historically, rates tend to come down when the economy is entering a recession, and that's never a good time for stocks.
As the following chart shows, rates (red line) fall AFTER unemployment (black line) spikes higher and a recession is underway:
My main concern is that while unemployment spikes and recessions can appear abrupt, they often follow a prolonged buildup with a gradual rise in unemployment, similar to the trend we're witnessing now.
Furthermore, as the chart indicates, the S&P 500 (SPX—blue line) usually experiences bearish pressure by the time interest rates finally begin to decline from their highs. Therefore, while lower rates are always desirable for the markets in the long term, they typically come at a cost initially—specifically, falling or stagnant stock prices.
How Interest Rate Cuts Affect the Stock Market
Historical Context
Interest rate cuts have historically had mixed effects on the stock market. While they aim to stimulate economic growth by making borrowing cheaper, they often come during periods of economic downturn. The Federal Reserve usually lowers rates in response to economic distress, which can initially lead to negative market reactions before any potential recovery.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Impact
In the short term, rate cuts can signal economic trouble, leading to bearish market behavior. For instance, during the 2000 and 2008 financial crises, significant rate cuts coincided with substantial market declines. However, in the long term, as lower rates help stabilize the economy, the stock market often recovers and begins to climb.
Sector-Specific Reactions
Different sectors react differently to interest rate cuts. Financial stocks, for example, might suffer due to reduced profit margins from lending activities, while consumer discretionary and real estate sectors could benefit from lower borrowing costs.
Key Considerations for Traders
Monitor Economic Indicators Traders should closely watch economic indicators such as PCE index, unemployment rates and inflation data to gauge the potential impact of rate cuts. Understanding these metrics can provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions and the broader economic outlook. For a deeper understanding of how these indicators affect the market, you can explore comprehensive resources on Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
Strategic Positioning Given the current projections, it's crucial to position portfolios strategically. While a rate cut in the near term might not be imminent, the increased probability of a cut by September suggests that traders should prepare for potential market volatility.
Protect Long Positions To manage risk, ensure stops are placed below key crossover points, such as the 2/3, 3/5, and 4/7 moving averages. This strategy can help protect profits and limit losses during periods of heightened market uncertainty.
Interest Rate Cuts and Stock Market: Additional Information
How do interest rate cuts affect stock market performance? Interest rate cuts can lead to lower borrowing costs, which can stimulate economic growth and boost corporate profits. However, they often occur during economic downturns, initially leading to market volatility.
What sectors benefit from interest rate cuts? Sectors like consumer discretionary and real estate often benefit from lower borrowing costs, while financials might suffer due to reduced profit margins from lending activities.
How can traders prepare for interest rate cuts? Traders can prepare by monitoring economic indicators, positioning portfolios strategically, and using stop-loss orders to manage risk during periods of volatility.
What is the relationship between interest rates and unemployment? Typically, interest rates are lowered to stimulate economic activity when unemployment rates are high. However, this relationship indicates economic distress, which can initially negatively impact the stock market.
Can interest rate cuts lead to a stock market rally? In the long term, lower interest rates can help stabilize the economy and lead to a stock market rally. However, the immediate impact might be negative due to underlying economic concerns.
Resolution to the Problem
Our trading methodology, which leverages market cycles, ensures that traders are not left holding losing positions. By predicting market cycles in advance, we can strategically set stops and re-enter positions at optimal times. This approach minimizes risk and maximizes gains, providing a structured and disciplined trading strategy that adapts to market conditions.
Conclusion
Interest rate cuts play a significant role in shaping stock market trends. By understanding their historical context and potential impacts, traders can navigate these changes more effectively. The current projections and economic indicators suggest that while rate cuts may be on the horizon, their immediate impact on the stock market might not be entirely positive. Therefore, strategic positioning and risk management are crucial during these times.
For more in-depth analysis check out our stock market trading strategies guide and check out Investopedia's comprehensive guide on trading strategies.
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