Market Commentary/Forecast for July 9, 2024
When our Forecast chart's intermediate cycles are rising, particularly when they align with a bullish long-term cycle, we want to maintain a bullish trading bias. During these periods, we want to focus on identifying regular short-term and momentum cycle dips within that upward trend as opportunities to buy or add to existing long positions.
Essentially, we act as bullish trend traders while longer cycles are rising, using shorter oscillations or 'trading' cycles to pinpoint entry points.
In a longer uptrend, the momentum cycle is more likely to move full-scale down to the lower reversal zone (-60 or lower) on our Forecast charts, with the next day's upturn typically signaling a buying point. The short-term cycle won't correspondingly drop but is more likely to 'dip' at such times, typically forming a pattern of 'higher lows'.
On our Technical Crossover charts, a buyable dip appears as an intraday low that touches the 3 or 5-day moving average before rebounding, with prices generally staying in the upper half of a 20-30 period price channel during these dips.
On an hourly TQQQ chart, we look for prices to dip below the midline of a 20-30 period price channel and then move back into the upper half once the dip is resolved, with the channel subsequently turning higher:
Yesterday, we observed a partial decline in momentum cycles coinciding with a slight stall in the indices. However, this movement wasn't substantial enough to trigger a clear 'buy' signal comparable to the one we identified on July 1st. Moving forward, I'll be monitoring the hourly chart for a potential pullback to the price channel centerline, which would present a more definitive buying opportunity.
Understanding Bullish Stock Market Indicators
A bull market is characterized by rising stock prices and investor confidence. Several key indicators can help traders identify and capitalize on these trends.
Economic Indicators
Economic indicators play a crucial role in identifying a bull market. Strong GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and rising consumer spending are positive signs. For instance, recent data showed U.S. employers added 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing expectations and indicating economic resilience.
Corporate Earnings
Corporate earnings reports are another critical indicator. As we approach earnings season, the performance of the "Magnificent 7" stocks (META, AMZN, AAPL, etc.) will be closely watched. Positive earnings surprises can drive stock prices higher, contributing to the overall bullish trend.
Technical Indicators
Technical indicators such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are essential tools. For example, when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, it generates a bullish signal known as a "golden cross."
How to Trade in a Bull Market
Stay Informed
Keeping up with market news and economic reports is crucial. Understanding the broader economic context helps in making informed decisions.
Use Technical Analysis
Leverage technical analysis to identify entry and exit points. As mentioned earlier, using moving averages and other indicators can help pinpoint buyable dips.
Diversify Your Portfolio
Diversification is key to managing risk. While focusing on high-performing sectors can yield significant returns, spreading investments across different asset classes can provide a safety net.
Monitor Cycles
Pay attention to market cycles. During a bull market 2024, look for short-term dips within the overall uptrend to add to positions. Our Forecast charts and Technical Crossover charts are invaluable tools in this regard.
Bull Market 2024 Additional Information
What are the signs of a bull market?
Signs of a bull market include rising stock prices, increased investor confidence, strong economic indicators, and positive corporate earnings. During a bull market, trading volumes often increase, and there is a general sense of optimism in the market.
How can you tell if a market is bullish?
A market is considered bullish when stock prices consistently rise over a period. Technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and bullish chart patterns (e.g., ascending triangles) can confirm bullish trends. Additionally, positive economic data and strong earnings reports support a bullish outlook.
How long does a bull market usually last?
A bull market can last for several years. Historically, the average bull market duration is about 5-7 years, but some have lasted longer. The longevity depends on various factors, including economic conditions, corporate performance, and investor sentiment.
Resolution to the Problem
When markets exhibit short-term and momentum cycles entering lower reversal zones, investors face challenges in identifying optimal buying opportunities. Our approach at Market Turning Points leverages advanced cycle analysis to pinpoint these critical moments. By predicting when cycles will hit their lows, we help investors avoid potential pitfalls and capitalize on rebounds. This ensures that you are not left holding losing positions and can make informed decisions to protect your portfolio and maximize gains.
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